Fallond Stock Picks

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Stock Market Commentary: Modest Gains But No Break

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 21:26:00 +0000

The tight trading goes into a third day, keeping both bulls and bears guessing. For the Nasdaq this was a close at resistance but on lower volume; it looks ready to challenge 2010 highs.

This as even the semiconductor index dropped back to test its 50-day MA. doing so with a dragonfly doji

The Russell 2000 managed a new closing high but hasn't taken out the highs of yesterday (a potential bearish shooting star).

An upside breakout is perhaps the most likely outcome, but whatever whatever happens the tight action has built a level of tension which will unwind once the 3-day range is broken.

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Build a Trading Strategy in Zignals; Read how and earn real money (once out of Beta) in this PDF.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard or the Zignals Trading Strategy MarketPlace.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

JOIN US TODAY - IT'S FREE!

Stock Market Commentary: Doji Pair

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 21:19:00 +0000

A second day of indecision to follow the first, but todays came on lower volume. The 2-day set up continues to offer a swing trade opportunity with a trade on break of (2-day) high/lows with a stop on the flip side. The Nasdaq is a good example

However, the semiconductor index undercut its prior day's low to settle just above its 50-day MA; whether this is lead for the Nasdaq will be proven tomorrow.

While the Russell 2000 made an intraday move to new 2010 highs but finished just below resistance on a doji.

Market Internals fast approaching resistance which will be another opportunity for bears to apply pressure

Follow Me on Twitter

Build a Trading Strategy in Zignals; Read how and earn real money (once out of Beta) in this PDF.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard or the Zignals Trading Strategy MarketPlace.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

JOIN US TODAY - IT'S FREE!

Stock Market Commentary: Market Pause

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 20:46:00 +0000

For most indices it was a relatively disappointing day as early gains disappeared by the close, although market leader Russell 2000 got very close to new highs for 2010 and finished the best of the indices. For Wednesday this is the index to watch.

For the likes of the Nasdaq the day finished with indecision, marked by the doji/gravestone doji. Given overbought conditions this may be interpreted as bearish but a close below today's low is required for a possible reaction high (and with the Russell 2000 challenging highs it would appear this is a pause in a broader advance). So no reason to be a seller here - yet.

It was the same story for the S&P

Follow small caps and swing trade the doji of other indices

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Stock Market Commentary: Clean Breakouts

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 21:07:00 +0000

It was a clean gap breakout for many of the key indices - a day which will have caught many shorts who entered at 50-day MAs with their pants down. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day, leaving room to resistance and both 50-day and 20-day MAs to look too as support. The Nasdaq demonstrated the breakout clearly

As did the Nasdaq 100

The Russell 2000 continued its leadership role with a scintillating 2.25% gain. If small caps are able to add another a percentage point it will mean new highs and a resumption of the bull trend - this should pull the other indices higher. Prior technical weakness also reversed.

The strength in small caps ran in contrast to large caps which limped over their 50-day MA. Weakness in large caps is not necessarily bad as it reflects a shift from safety to more speculative issues, but it will be important for large caps to follow small caps higher.

Tomorrow will probably see some consolidation and key will be ensuring 50-day MAs hold as support as the week wears on.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 15:05:00 +0000

Markets are off to a bright start for Monday - but what had stockcharters' to say before the open.

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview kicks off with mostly neutral signals as overbought conditions had worked their way out of the market. Equal amount of buy and sell signals.

Although it's early days yet, the SPY is on course for a new reaction high as it pushes through 50-day MA resistance

Buy signals in play from last week

Mechanical trading strategy on a 'Long Signal'

Tech going well too

Richard Lehman of Trendchannelmagic.com gives his 2 cents. He calls for something larger to the upside.

2/28 -- I've now drawn green upchannel lines on the short term charts to show the larger channel that is taking shape off the 2/7 low. Until now, we had an upward blue mini from 2/7-2/22 followed by a smaller red mini downward. The Dow is one of the few indexes still in that red mini. The small caps and others have now broken back upward, telling me that something larger was definitely at work here on the upside. Thus, it was time to take a stab at it.

We are at the upper end of that larger green and the momentum indicators are approaching extremes already, so I suspect the upside will peak out again soon in the short terms. The long term charts still appear to have unfinished business on the downside, but that may take weeks to play itself out.

2/25 -- The short term charts remain in the new downward red minichannels, but with a number of indexes closing right at the upper line. Until they break, the short term is heading lower and the long term charts are stiull heading toward the lower green lines from last March.

2/23 -- Breaks have now occurred on the short term charts of all three small cap indexes, the Dow, and the high-beta sectors like tech stocks. The SPX and the Dow hourly charts saw perfect line touches with no breaks, but that may only be initial support. Another short term downleg has likely begun.

2/22 -- Short term momentum has stalled, but remains within the upchannels that began Feb 5th for all but a scant few indexes. GLD is one for which the momentum has actually turned somewhat downward and broken the blue upchannel.

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave.com has labelled a five wave structure up in the Dow 60-min which appears to be mapping too form. Could stall out at 10,500 if wave 5 = wave 1

Michael Eckert of EWTrendsandcharts has fan resistance marked - but it looks to be breaking in the Russell 2000; will there be a challenge (and break?) of 650 resistance?

Interesting coiling action at 5-min support in the S&P (for those who read this in time to take advantage!)

Finally, we have the Joe Reed summary:

Bank Index on a 'sell' trigger as part of a trading range

As Nasdaq Summation Index switches to a 'buy'

Lets see how today pans out - could be an important gauge for the rest of the week if current gains stick.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Latest Trading Jobs

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 21:43:00 +0000

Some jobs for Spring

Trader - Energy / Alternative Investments
Trader - Foreign Exchange
Trader - Eurodollar
Active Trader Relationship Manager - Call Center
Director Bond Trader - US Treasuries (Major Global Investment Bank); $400K
Proprietary Trader
Day Trading - Proprietary Equity Trader
Senior Trader - asset backed securities
Trader - Foreign Exchange

Find more trading jobs here

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Weekly Market Commentary: First Sell of Bounce

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 21:57:00 +0000

After the past couple weeks of gains last week was the first down week for the counter rally. Technically, the confirmed 'sells' from early February haven't reversed so bears hold the edge as far as the weekly picture is the concerned. In the S&P there was a confirmed distribution week

It was the same story for the Nasdaq

The past few weeks saw the Russell 2000 negate what had looked to had been a bull trap, but the losses of this week haven't undone this work; 614 key support here

Market Internals saw what looked to be a spike low for the Percentage of S&P Stocks above their 50-day MA with a stochastic 'buy' - but no MACD confirmation 'buy'

The Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks above their 50-day MA did not spike as low as the corresponding S&P market internal, but still did enough to see a stochastic 'buy'. It too is waiting on a MACD 'buy'

While the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA for both the Nasdaq and S&P suggest a bottom there hasn't been the confirmation from the respective Summation Indices or Bullish Percents. So far, what's in play is an intermediate bear trend counter rally.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Stock Market Commentary: Respectable Recovery After 20-day MA Tests

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 11:07:00 +0000

It was looking to be a gloomy day for bulls as stocks gapped down dramatically from the open, but a late afternoon rally restored prices and kept pressure on resistance of the nascent downtrends.

For the Nasdaq the day finished just shy of the 50-day MA (the real battle zone) registering a distribution day in the process. The test for Friday is whether the new down channel is really a channel or just a brief pause as part of a broadening rally.

The S&P made a strong charge from its 20-day MA to finish nestled against channel resistance but still 6 points below its 50-day MA. For those who took advantage the 20-day MA buy was a good day-trade.

The Russell 2000 was another to benefit as it recovered from the 50-day MA and is well positioned to take advantage of its market leadership role. Any gains Friday will break the channel and won't leave it far from pushing new highs at 650. Perhaps the index to watch for Friday.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Stock Market Commentary: Recovers But New Down Channels Intact

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 22:27:00 +0000

Although markets regained much of the ground lost yesterday there wasn't the move to break the newly formed down channels. Buying volume in the Nasdaq was substantially down on yesterday's selling.

But it registered as accumulation for the Nasdaq 100

Small Caps are best positioned to break higher

Channel resistance and the 50-day MA keep the S&P pegged after its almost 1% gain.

So while gains were respectable the down channels drawn yesterday are still in play for key indices.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Stock Market Commentary: Bears Get Their Break

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 20:48:00 +0000

With the sequence of up days that had passed it was not surprising to see the tension break to the downside. What Tuesday's selling does is establish the down channel with the 20-day and 200-day MAs to look too for support and the 50-day MA now confirmed resistance for all bar the Russell 2000. The Nasdaq saw a bear cross between +DI and -DI although trend strength had been falling during the counter rally.

The Russell 2000 is showing more characteristics of a 6-month trading range than any form of trending market. A broad downleg in play back to what looks like range support around 560.

The semiconductor index may be in a range of its own - although it is the weakest technically with 'sell' triggers for the CCI, ADX and stochastics as it underperforms the Nasdaq 100

The S&P didn't escape the selling as the 50-day MA proved to be stern resistance. A bear cross in the +DI/-DI switches the trend in favour of the bears.

Bulls will likely look to the 20-day MAs for support, but given their proximity to 50-day MAs (and resistance) I suspect markets will push through and attempt a run to the new downward channel support. A more likely scenario is a test of 200-day MAs (which will likely come before channel support tests for many of the indices).

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Stock Market Commentary: Light Losses Light Volume

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 21:08:00 +0000

The strong sequence of winning days was broken by what, in the end, was a very minor down day. Volume was light so bulls look to be holding out for a little more while bears were reluctant to attack. It was the same picture across indices

The Russell 2000 actually managed to close a little higher as it finished on a doji

While the S&P had the same doji, only it closed a little lower

Swing trade the tight intraday action.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 10:29:00 +0000

It was another good week for bulls as markets closed higher. Is there anything new to add to proceedings?

Anthony V Caldaro of Objectiveelliottwave hasn't added too much to his charts. The one thing of note on the 60-min S&P was the bearish divergence in the RSI.

Richard Lehman of Trendchannelmagic.com is skeptical of the advance - even if Friday's gains surprised him

2/20 -- What looked like a major turn southward on Friday morning came bouncing right back to stay within the current short term upchannels, albeit crawling along the upper lines. The resilience of this rally lends question to whether we have seen the low and are off to the stars again. I still think not and that the short term is peaking, but one has to respect theshort term uptrend until shown otherwise.

2/18 -- Another up day keeps the equity indexes at the very tops of their short term channels and highly vulnerable. The Fed in its infinite wisdom decided to announce the first tightening after the close today and before an expiration day. That will make Friday a very interesting day and no doubt leave many bulls quite aggravated at the Fed.

2/17 -- Once again: dollar sells off, stocks and commodities soar. I know we don't want that to be the reason things are rising, but the correlation is way too strong to dismiss. That brings the major equity indexes up to the top of the blue minichannel now on the short term charts. I'd say that spells vulnerability, but if the dollar swoons again, things are likely to find a way to move up further, even if it means steepening that channel.

2/13 -- Except for the Dow, the short term charts have all broken upward through the purple downchannels that began in mid January. Some (like RUT and FXI) have come back and successfully retested that purple as support. That gives a nod to further short term upside. However, the blue mini channels are relatively flat and do not have the look of strong new upchannels. In addition, the long term charts broken down through the first green target and are heading toward the second. Therefore, I view the short term up move as tenuous and likely to end within days and head lower.

Michael Eckert of EWTrendsandcharts.blogspot.com has labelled a wave two top (third wave down to begin) in the Russell 2000 after it tested the 45-degree former support-turned resistance fan line.

Same true for the S&P?

Interesting swing trade coming up for the S&P on the 5-min chart

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has seen a sharp shift to bearish internals over last week's neutral set up (contradicting the rise in the markets)

Noted overheating in the SPY on the ChiOsc

Big test at the 50-day MA

Joe Reed offers his summary:

CCI isn't far off a top

Will stochastics of the the Summation Index support a 'buy'?

The Bank Index has traded in a well-formed range since August 2009; stochastics have worked well in this environment

Finally, another take on the Russell 10-min using EWT by Daniel Millard of Danericsellitowaves. The Russell 2000 is leading the markets so what goes here goes for tech and large caps next. Daniel has also plumbed for a wave ii top; time to sell/short the longer wave iii down?

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Latest Trading Jobs

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 21:24:00 +0000

This week's list include:

Trading Instructors: $40-55K
Trader - Eurodollar
Bond and SMA Trader
Natural Gas Trader - Northeast
Petroleum Products Trader
Forex Trader - High Frequency Trading
Proprietary Trader
Financial Analyst / Assistant Trader $15-20 / hour
Bilingual Japanese US Equity Trader

You will find more trading jobs here

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Weekly Market Commentary: Low Volume Gains

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 17:41:00 +0000

This week was more about the developing bottom in the various market internals than it was about the indices themselves. The S&P is no longer overbought but has a long way to go before it turns oversold.

It was the same story for the Nasdaq

The Nasdaq Bullish Percents finally dropped to oversold levels but the pattern has the look of a measured move - a drop to the rising support (green) line looks a good bet for a decent bottom.

The Nasdaq Percent of Stocks above the 50-day MA completed the first part a bottom with the uptick in stochastics - the MACD trigger 'buy' is next

The Nasdaq Summation Index also saw stochastics drop into oversold territory, but the internal itself is in neutral territory.

The S&P Bullish Percent was the odd one out as it is not oversold and the internal has only dropped out of overbought conditions.

Action in the markets and market internals are showing similarities to the early part of 2007, just before markets made their final highs in August - suggesting the current decline is a pullback in the March 2009 advance. There is a good chance market highs will be taken out with only minor pullbacks to tease bears; but anything which gets back to lows suggests a measured move down from whatever high is posted from this rally.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Stock Market Commentary: 50-day MAs Break

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 23:30:00 +0000

It was a good day for markets as recent gains continued. The Nasdaq was able to break through its 50-day MA as technicals turned net bullish. Volume was a little disappointing and has been below the level of preceding selling.

The Dow was able to do likewise, closing above its 50-day MA as its technicals turned net green.

If there is a spanner in the works its the semiconductor index. On the plus side supporting technicals are net bullish, but it failed to close above its 50-day MA.

It was the same story for the S&P

With small caps and technology indices leading there is a good chance the S&P and Semiconductor index will follow suit tomorrow. The kicker is the lack of volume but so far the rally from March 2009 has maintained its sequence of higher highs and higher lows and until it proves otherwise it's still intact.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Stock Market Commentary: Market Pause

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 21:47:00 +0000

After the gains of the last few days markets took a pause at 50-day MAs. This was epitomised by the Nasdaq which closed on a neutral doji - on low volume - just below the 50-day MA. If there is a note of optimism its the pending stochastic 'buy' which will help a challenge on the 50-day MA.

Performing better was the Russell 2000 which saw further gains after yesterday's break of the 50-day MA. Adding to the bullish picture was the net turn in technicals with the stochastic and ADX 'buy' following the MACD and CCI 'buys' from before.

Also improving is market breadth; the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA, Nasdaq Bullish Percents and the Nasdaq Summation Index have all crossed their 5-day EMAs. None are in deep oversold territory but each are at levels where the rally could last a little longer than just the past few days.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Stock Market Commentary: 20-day MAs break on MACD 'buys'

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 21:50:00 +0000

Markets continued their advance as they pushed above 20-day MAs and in some cases, 50-day MAs. The Nasdaq broke through its 20-day MA on slightly lower volume than Friday, but with a MACD trigger 'buy' and OBV 'buy' trigger. The 50-day MA is only a few points overhead but with other indices breaking past 50-day MAs the odds favour the Nasdaq doing the same.

The Dow posted a MACD trigger 'buy' as leadership moves away from staid large caps to more speculative tech stocks.

The Nasdaq 100 had the distinction of a dual break of 20-day and 50-day MAs - with the MACD trigger 'buy':

The Russell 2000 cleared both its 20-day and 50-day MAs and had a MACD trigger 'buy'

The only index to struggle a little was the S&P; it barely managed a break of its 20-day MA or trigger a MACD 'buy'

So while markets enjoyed across the board strength, after three days of gains its likely we will see markets ease a little with markets looking to their 20-day MAs for support.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

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Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 10:56:00 +0000

It's Presidents day so no trading for Monday. Last week saw some positive action on the dailies - what had the Stockcharters to say:

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliottwave hasn't altered the count from the start of a wave 2 higher (for the S&P). Not sure I picked up on this last week, but he has a fourth wave down of a five wave bull run for the weekly Nasdaq

Richard Lehman of Trendschannelmagic.com is looking for short term upside to continue - but not for very long.

2/13 -- Except for the Dow, the short term charts have all broken upward through the purple downchannels that began in mid January. Some (like RUT and FXI) have come back and successfully retested that purple as support. That gives a nod to further short term upside. However, the blue mini channels are relatively flat and do not have the look of strong new upchannels. In addition, the long term charts broken down through the first green target and are heading toward the second. Therefore, I view the short term up move as tenuous and likely to end within days and head lower.

2/11 -- The Dow has now eeked up to the upper line on its short term chart and stopped. All other major indexes have broken upward, albeit in rather flat blue minichannels. Despite the breaks upward, the flat channels do not provide a lot of confidence in much more of an upside bounce here. t remain cautious and watchful of another downleg.

2/10 -- The markets are now pondering whether the short term good news in Europe isn't just more bad news in the bigger picture. A few more short term charts hit upper channel lines, but no new breaks upward occurred. That means the direction is still down.

2/9 -- Greece saved? Dollar down. Stocks up. Equities continue to move in lock step with the dollar. Numerous charts with well defined downtrends are now back at the upper channel lines. Techs, golds, and the QQQQ have actually broken upward on the short term charts. But short term momentum is peaking, so a sustained up move from here is unlikely. Long term momentum seems to be turning upward, but that time scale could easily allow for a week or two more decline even while beginning to turn upward. Bottom line: watch the short term downchannels to see if the broader indexes break upward, but don't assume this decline is over yet.

I like this chart of his for a support low for this downphase.

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has the majority of breadth indicators in neutral territory with the few showing trend favouring bears.

Makes a case for a bear flag in the SPY:

Fib resistance levels and 20-day MA also playing resistance (for the QQQQs)

Michael Eckert of EWTrendsandcharts has noted the break of the 45-degree support channel for the Russell 2000 60-min chart which suggests the mini-rally in play could stall out on a test of this former support-now resistance line.

Sample wave structure down for the SPY on the 60-min with Fib targets

Note nasty MACD and RSI bearish divergences in the S&P daily chart

Dr. Joe has his weekly summary:

Nice track of the Summation Index - no buy signal yet:

Consensus seems to suggest the current rally is nothing more than a pause in a larger move down. However, there is no suggestion of this been anything more than a pullback in a larger uptrend. Time will tell but probably no reason to jump to the long side if you missed last week's lows.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

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Latest Trading Jobs

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 21:34:00 +0000

Latest Trading Jobs for Monday February 15th

Bilingual Japanese US Equity Trader
CMBS/RMBS and/or Consumer ABS Analyst/Trader
Experienced Options Traders (CME Eurodollars, CME 5yr/10yr/30yr)
Bond and SMA Trader
Trader/Junior Trader
Precious Metals Trader
HY and FX Trader
Assistant Trader; $23-25 / hour
Trading and Development Associate
Derivatives Analyst
Equity Options Quantitative Researcher / Trader
Desk Operations Specialist

Find more trading jobs here.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Weekly Market Commentary: Modest Gains But Not Oversold

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 21:42:00 +0000

The week closed with modest gains after last week's confirmed 'Sells' across the board. While there may be some indication of short term bottoms on daily timeframes there isn't the support on the weekly picture - either from the indices themselves or from breadth indicators.

For the S&P short-term stochastics look to be a couple of weeks away from a bottom - with longer term stochastics months away from doing so (although these could find support at the bullish mid-line if this is a true bull market). The S&P sits at a former resistance level - now support - at 1,062, but Fib retracements look better for a stronger bottom.

Small Caps have returned below the two resistance levels, leaving behind a bull trap

The Nasdaq is stuck in a no-mans land between support and resistance

While Nasdaq breadth is weakening, it hasn't yet reached true oversold levels (although supporting technicals have). Bullish Percents are closer to overbought.

While the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA are nearer to oversold.

With the Summation Index somewhere in-between

So while the daily charts still favour a continuation of the rally, weekly charts aren't so promising for a sustainable bottom - yet.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

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Stock Market Commentary: Bull Breakout

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 21:08:00 +0000

Finally, bulls make their move. The Nasdaq enjoyed a clean channel breakout with a solid move higher - even if volume was a little disappointing. First test will be the 20-day MA overhead.

The Russell 2000 also enjoyed a channel breakout, matched with a CCI 'buy' signal.

The semiconductor index is up against the 20-day MA which will be a big test for the other indices for the early part of next week.

The S&P only managed to push just beyond channel resistance, but a shift in relative strength towards more speculative small caps is a bullish sign.

So with the shift we now have the most bullish alignment for markets with small caps leading tech leading large caps. Look for more gains Friday.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

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Stock Market Commentary: Break Tease!

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 21:01:00 +0000

Tuesday's action looked to have given the bulls the impetus needed to firm Friday's reversal as a reversal, instead we got an inside day. Inside days build tension and suggest a big reaction to follow - which bulls hope will be higher.

Is there a case for a channel breakout in the Nasdaq 100?

The semiconductor index - which broke resistance yesterday - maintained its channel breakout with a second doji

What today's action allows is for a tighter stop on the opposite side of the direction of the break (using today's high/low range).

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

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Stock Market Commentary: No Follow Through Lower

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 21:25:00 +0000

Markets closed higher, undoing the bearish challenge of yesterday and reinstating the reversal characteristics of last Friday. For the Nasdaq the narrow downward channel hasn't broken but it finished Tuesday on resistance with an indecisive doji on higher volume. The doji is good swing opportunity with a stop 1% on the flip-side lows; given the oversold nature of the market the break should be higher

Favouring the upside break for the Nasdaq is the channel breakout for the semiconductors

The recovery in large caps was pegged by resistance created by the prior reaction low but technicals favour a bounce.

Market breadth is firmly down, so a retest of last Friday's lows is still a distinct possibility. The long term breadth picture is showing significant weakness with a stronger market bottom some distance off.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

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Stock Market Commentary: Drifting into Friday's Range

noreply@blogger.com (Declan Fallon) — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 22:26:00 +0000

There wasn't the follow through Friday's reversal had looked to offer on paper. Large and Small Caps took the brunt of the selling. The Russell 2000 returned to the lower support band of its sharply falling channel - not quite touching but may do so tomorrow.

The S&P could barely manage a return into Thursday's losses. This failure gives some idea as to the level of overhead supply. However, there is a positive with developing bullish divergences in supporting technicals

Tech averages fared slightly better and were able to stay at the upper reaches of Friday's range.

The semiconductors - closest to their 200-day MA - finished with an indecisive 'spinning top' but also with a 'buy' trigger in the CCI; look for semiconductor leadership over the coming days.

Much depends on what the semiconductors do. Given their proximity to the 200-day MA they offer the best chance for a support bounce. If successful, it should help take the other indices higher - but it's hard looking at Monday's selloff in large cap indices not to think it will be more of the same (and then some) for Tuesday.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!