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It has been a while since I offered my stock pick newsletter, but I have now gone one better with my latest mechanical Trading System

  • 41% Return Since November 2007
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  • Max drawdown of 9% (Nov 07)
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  • The strategy is called "ETF Heaven - Medium" and was created by user "Z_Strategy"
  • Other strategies can be found by searching for component stocks in our MarketPlace or by searching for a user; 'Z_Strategy' or 'fallond'
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    Tuesday, March 18, 2008

    What you should be reading for today

    Looks like St. Paddy's day was not one for Bear Stearns (or its employees) to celebrate. The subsequent action in the markets reflected the panic.

    Bill has an excellent chart showing the relationship between the VIX and 10-year Treasury Yield. This ratio is at levels last seen in the 2002/2003 bottom

    TraderMike has his usual succinct summary. He is watching 2,200 closely in the Nasdaq. Market reaction to Fed decision will decide whether we have support or resistance.

    Will the Fed cut by a full 1%? Will Markets view it as the needed cure? Or a panic reaction to the current state of affairs? It sounds like a lot to me - but what do I know.

    Barry has Lehmans on B.S. watch.

    Steven Smith
    at TheStreet.com noted heavy option trading volume in B.S. over the course of the last couple of weeks.

    Kevin's Market Blog is looking for a measured move target down to $39-39 for the Qs.

    Quantifiable Edges notes how Bear ruined the traditional pre-Fed rally. But, not to be outdone, the Fed impact on the market turns more negative as time passes (Oh Great!).

    In times like these it is better to buy stocks for the long haul, rather than try and trade the volatility swings. For me, the best stocks to buy in these conditions are dividend payers. Why? You are buying a stock at deep discount with a yield which is (usually) far superior to any bond - a good floor for any stock. Assuming you spread your share purchases over time you can get a really good deal on stocks. Sites like Dividend Money, Dividend Growth, Dividend Guy, Dividends4Life, and Dividends Matter should be on your feed readers. Dividend Money had a nice piece about Insurers.

    If/When the Fed starts to adopt a Zimbabwean policy towards money it will probably unwittingly cure the Social Security shortfall.

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    Friday, February 15, 2008

    Top 3 Dividend Stocks

    I ran a quick scan for dividend paying stocks on MSN Screener with the following parameters:

  • Current Dividend Yield >= 5%
  • Market Capitalization >= 100,000,000
  • Div Yield: 5-year average >= 5%
  • EPS growth YTD vs YTD >= 25%
  • EPS growth Qtr vs Qtr >= 15%
  • Return on Equity >= 17%

    The screener returned eleven stocks; best of the bunch were

    [1] Terra Nitrogen Co. LP (TNH): This has the added advantage of belonging to Agricultural Chemicals, ranked strongest sector according to Barchart.com. The weekly chart is looking tired with falling volume on new highs combined with a bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line. Should the stock trade inside a $72-$126 range it would be an attractive dollar-cost-average candidate. Those looking to pick a single entry price should look to the Fibonacci levels: $103.71, $106.66, $114.92 and/or the 50-day MA. Re-invest the somewhat erratic dividend and this could be a great long term hold as commodities (and their associated stocks) tend to enjoy longer bullish environments than is typical (commodity bull markets can last up to 35 years).

    [2] National Health Investors (NHI) is a Healthcare facilities REIT. Unlike Terra Nitrogen it is undergoing a much more sedate consolidation, with good supporting strength in the technicals. There is no dividend chart (Yahoo didn't offer one???), but as one can see from its historical payout it doesn't disappoint. Go long on a break from the consolidation triangle.

    [3] W.P. Carey and Co (WPC) is in the area of Property Managemnent and has seen steady growth in its dividend. Technically, it is the weakest of the three picks with a clear bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line, combined with a distribution trend in on-balance-volume (associated with new price highs - not good). Best to wait for this to fall back into the clutches of Fibonacci retracement before taking the plunge. Provides value in the $26.50-$30.00 range.

    There were two other honorable mentions on the scan: Southern Peru Copper (PCU) is a stock I hold in my dollar-cost-average account because of its great dividend (its sharp price rise has been a bonus). I have talked about this back in June and April of last year so no need to go on about it again. The other stock of potential interest was Lloyds TSB ADR (LYG) which has seen a 40% trim off its 2007 highs and is only a few dollars off its 2006 lows. When big names like this languish in the dump you should whip out your wallet out and start buying little bits at a time. Dollar cost average over the next 12-18 months and you will be holding this at a very nice price.

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    Tuesday, December 11, 2007

    Fourteen banks yielding 5% or more

    With an expected rate cut on our hands lovers of income yielding bonds are getting squeezed once more. However, income lovers don't have to fret as there is plenty of value out there if you know where to look. Utilities and REITs are one such option, but the best plays are to be found in the unloved financial sector. Not all have suffered at the hands of sub-prime losses, but nearly all have been tarred by the same brush. The following stocks were screened for a yield greater than 5%, trading at the lower Bollinger bands. The best way to take advantage of the firesale is to split your allocated capital into 12 portions and dollar cost average over the year. Reinvest the dividend and let these stocks work for you.

    Symbol - Name - Close - Industry - Yield

    CORS - Corus Bankshares Inc - $12.04 - Bank - 8.31%
    NCC - National City Corp. - $20.20 - Bank (Midwest) - 8.12%
    FHN - First Horizon National - $23.49 - Bank (Midwest) - 7.66%
    CRBC - Citizens Republic Bancorp - $15.38 - Bank - 7.54%
    HBAN - Huntington Bancshs. - $16.77 - Bank (Midwest) - 6.32%
    WB - Wachovia Corp. - $44.46 - Bank - 5.76%
    KEY - KeyCorp - $25.89 - Bank - 5.64%
    RF - Regions Financial - $27.34 - Bank - 5.56%
    BAC - Bank of America - $46.64 - Bank - 5.49%
    FMER - FirstMerit Corp. - $21.27 - Bank (Midwest) - 5.45%
    CMA - Comerica Inc. - $47.08 - Bank (Midwest) - 5.44%
    FITB - Fifth Third Bancorp - $31.01 - Bank (Midwest) - 5.42%
    SUSQ - Susquehanna Bncshs. - $20.25 - Bank - 5.14%

    For the momentum lovers amongst you; the following are on point-n-figure 'Buys'

    CORS: Triple Top Breakout from December 7th. Price target $18.50
    NCC: Double top Breakout from November 30th. Price target $24.50
    FHN: Low Pole Reversal from November 28th. Price target (bearish) $9.00.
    HBAN: Low Pole Reversal from November 30th: Price target (bearish) $8.00.

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