Stock Market Commentary: Drifting into Friday's Range

There wasn't the follow through Friday's reversal had looked to offer on paper. Large and Small Caps took the brunt of the selling. The Russell 2000 returned to the lower support band of its sharply falling channel - not quite touching but may do so tomorrow.


The S&P could barely manage a return into Thursday's losses. This failure gives some idea as to the level of overhead supply. However, there is a positive with developing bullish divergences in supporting technicals


Tech averages fared slightly better and were able to stay at the upper reaches of Friday's range.


The semiconductors - closest to their 200-day MA - finished with an indecisive 'spinning top' but also with a 'buy' trigger in the CCI; look for semiconductor leadership over the coming days.


Much depends on what the semiconductors do. Given their proximity to the 200-day MA they offer the best chance for a support bounce. If successful, it should help take the other indices higher - but it's hard looking at Monday's selloff in large cap indices not to think it will be more of the same (and then some) for Tuesday.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Read more!

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

Are bulls to make a stand? The Stockcharters discuss.

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliottwave.com has marked the start of wave 2 of a five wave pattern down on the 60-min SPX chart.


But on the daily timeframe this is still part of the three wave down (therefore for this to be true, 1,104 cannot be breached on the rally)


An alternate bull count for the Nasdaq:


Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has a swathe of neutral signals on the short and intermediate term time frames - it's anyones game.


Interesting take here - was Friday's strong afternoon response the necessary reversal or will these gains get pegged back Monday?


So Yong Pan is looking for 4 strong days to follow to help shore it up:


Plenty of whipsaw to watch for:


Also looking at the 200-day MAs (my preferred bounce level):


Richard Lehman of TrendChannelMagic.com sums it nicely at the beginning (my emphasis)

2/6 -- Friday's drubbing reaffirmed the larger downtrend I've been referring to for the last week or two. I thought we might hit the upper purple channel line on the Dow before collapsing like we did, but in retrospect, the small caps all hit their upper lines perfectly on Feb 3/4. Anyway, it pays to remember that in a downtrend, the surprises are on the downside. And the short term trend is now unmistakable.

Now, most charts hit their lower short term purple lines on Friday before rallying. (A few actually exceeded their original lines to the downside and have since been adjusted.) That resulted in a healthy bounce into the close. That bounce could continue, but I would view it as a countertrend trading bounce rather than a bottom for this move.The reason I say that is that the longer term uptrends have clearly broken and the green lines off the March lows are likely the next major support area. What may happen, though is that the small caps get there first (the QQQQ could actually get there soon), and then the large caps, having lagged on the decline, may reverse before actually hitting. But that bottom has not yet unfolded.

The issue here is as clearly the dollar as it was the dollar on the way up. The bottom line: the dollar trade trumps fundamentals! The dollar may hit the upper line at 80-81, but is still in an uptrend. Gold oil and risk sectors are taking a whack, and seeing that, people are understandably scared about remaining in equities too long. If the idea of a major US company going down wasn't scary enough, how about the idea that several major countries go belly up?

Daniel Millard of Danericselliottwaves outlines his bearish wave count for Small Caps:


Projections for 30-yr bond prices:


With little optimism for gold bugs:


Finally, a different approach from Francis Bussiere of AstroCycle.net for 10-min SPX



Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Read more!

Latest Trading Jobs

This week's jobs include:

First Level Trade Support: $60-80/hour
Portfolio Analyst / Trader
ETF Sales Trader
Experienced FX Trader at High Frequency Trading Firm
PWM/GWM TA (Trader Asst) Manager
Assoicate Stock/Options Trader
Execution Trader - Night Desk - Asian Markets - Fixed Income
Proprietary Trader
International Fixed Incomes Sales Trader

Find More Trading Jobs Here


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Read more!

Weekly Market Commentary: Confirmed 'Sells'

Since the weekly trend breakdowns markets haven't managed to mount a serious challenge of recent highs. Instead, markets have continued down to trigger confirmed 'sell' signals. Where there was a spread in the confirmed weekly 'buy' signals last Spring, this time the markets have universally given confirmed 'sell' triggers.

The S&P confirmed 'buy' was April 3rd and Friday - Feb 5th - was the confirmed 'sell'.


For the Nasdaq the confirmed 'buy' was March 30th and Friday was the confirmed 'sell'


And for Small Caps April 3rd was the confirmed 'buy' and Friday the confirmed 'sell'.


With all three major indices on confirmed 'sell' triggers next it's time to look for exit points on the daily timeframe. With Friday's heavy volume reversals there is a good chance for rallies lasting up to 3 weeks. The peak of the resulting rally will define the downtrend channel for the next phase lasting for (potentially) another 5 months.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Read more!

Stock Market Commentary: Break and Run

Whatever strength the indices managed the past few days was quickly whipped away. Semiconductors drove the push lower with a 4.6% loss bringing the index very close to its 200-day MA; a test of this moving average is looking likely.


The S&P went from a potential bull trap to a confirmed breakdown. Death cross between 20-day and 50-day MA imminent.


The nascent CCI 'buy' signal in the Russell 2000 was also blown away. There was a relative strength swing away from Small Caps towards Tech, with Large Caps leading the markets - the most bearish alignment for markets.


Tomorrow will probably lead off with a rally, but if this is the start of a more protracted decline then a respectable rally is required to define the upper boundaries of a new downward channel.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Read more!

Stock Market Commentary: Modest Tech Gains

A non-event day; techs made small gains, small and large caps posted small losses. From a technical perspective there was at least a stochastic 'buy' for many of the indices.


The Russell 2000 remained contained by its 50-day MA


Of the market breadth indicators, the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above their 50-day MA marked a bottom as it crossed its 5-day MA helped by an Ultimate Oscillator 'buy'.


Other market breadth indicators are still some way from firming a bottom but buyers are prepared to take a look here.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Read more!

Stock Market Commentary: Second Day of Gains

Second day of gains which were worth more to large caps than tech or small caps. For the S&P there was a close above the 1,100 as the S&P picked up relative strength against the Russell 2000 (large caps outperforming small caps). This may have left a substantial bear trap which could force a third day of big gains. However, even with two days of gains, stochastics of the S&P only just edged out of oversold conditions to give a 'buy'.


The Russell 2000 outlined some of the difficulties the indices face in the days ahead as intraday strength stalled out at the 50-day MA. On the plus side there was a CCI 'buy' signal.


Techs struggled even though it registered an accumulation day


For Wednesday keep an eye on large caps as the best chance for a short covering rally is in these indices (S&P and Dow) but it may be short-lived (morning?) if other indices don't participate.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Read more!

Fallond Stock Picks: Relief Bounce

Markets enjoyed a temporary respite after a couple days of heavy selling. Stochastics reached comparable oversold levels to that of October - although channel support has long since gone for the indices.

For the Nasdaq any relief bounce is likely to struggle at the 50-day MA as the 20-day MA works its way down towards an intermediate 'Death Cross'


The Dow is closer to a 'Death Cross' - it has been a while since the 20-day MA cut below the 50-day MA; this will make 20-day MA resistance.


There were bigger gains in the semiconductor index with an inside day.


The S&P went a step better and closed above Friday's open. A push above 1,100 would give the rally some momentum.


Bulls have a chance to make the rally work with the S&P best placed to make progress.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Read more!

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts; Selloff

A big week for bears, but markets remain above their 200-day MAs. What will this week bring?

Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave.com is looking for a fifth wave low on the S&P 60-min timeframe.


So far, Anthony has no updated count on the daily timeframe.

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has a mix of signals across short and intermediate time frames.


Yong Pan's conditions for top/bottom


Look out below?


Sample short on the daily SPY:


QQQQs have met their down-target obligation


But stepping back at little (in the Nasdaq 100) sees a longer-term target of the 200-day MAs:


Richard Lehman of Trendchannelmagic.com had this to say from the end of last week.

1/30 -- The short term Dow and the SPX charts now look best as slope changes on their purple downtrends. That may be due to the fact that they have hit the long term rising green channel line from last year. Meanwhile, the small caps have broken that same green line already and have continued down at the current pace. Small caps and sectors like tech, oils and golds are now down close to 10% off their January peaks.

None of the momentum indicators has turned up yet, though they are close to the extremes (below 20 on the stochastics) where that should happen soon. That does not necessarily mean the decline will be over -- only that an oversold bounce is likely. I see the possibility of a bounce set up this week, but that we will be a good bit lower still by mid-late Feb.

1/28 -- The breaks that started on the upside yesterday turned out to be either slope changes or channel widenings today. That leaves things in short term downtrends for the most part (although the one sector that looks most like a real break upward is the financials. Today's low may stick, but there is no confirmation of that until a clean break upward occurs. A larger channel downward is tentatively drawn now on the Dow hourly.

1/27 -- A new low for this move was generally made today, from which a bounce ensued, and that bounce managed to break the purple downchannel in most cases. That's a good sign that a temporary bottom is in and the next leg up has begun. The bigger picture still assumes that this bounce is part of a larger downtrend, and when it forms another peak, we'll be able to draw that larger channel. Gold and oil continue to suffer, however, with the rise in the dollar, and are not in sync with the broad equity indexes.

Bounce as part of a larger decline to follow.

Joe Reed keeps his presence felt:


Looks like the CCI support 'buy' is history; but look at what happened after past extremes; if there was a buying opportunity this is it.


Finally, a blast from past; Peter Robinson has an interesting take on the wedge breakown for the S&P:


For those who missed it, here is my S&P Review-to-date posted on the Zignals blog.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Read more!

Latest Trading Jobs

This week's trading jobs.

Trader-Natural Gas-01893
Experienced Energy Trader at High Frequency Trading Firm
Experienced FX Trader at High Frequency Trading Firm
Proprietary Trader
Mortgage Securities Trader
SVP, Electronic Sales Trader (Investment Banking); $400K
Bond Trader - Fixed Income Trader
Senior Trader
Fixed Income Sales Trader
VP, Securities Lending Trader
ETF Sales Trader

You will find more trading jobs here


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Read more!

Find a Trading Strategy for You

Trade signal emails have been bundled into a single email; there are 114 trading strategies (Advanced Search - Strategies) available to search covering US, UK, India, Canada, Irish and Australian markets, Forex, Commodities and ETFs. You can also build your own stock trading system or forex trading system. Systems built can soon be sold for cash in a revenue share program once out of Beta; currently it is FREE to build or subscribe to a strategy.


Join for free today!


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for Zignals.com, offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets under the user id: ‘Fallond’, ‘ETFTrader’ and ‘Z_Strategy’ available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard; many are ranked in the top-20 for 3-month and YTD performance.

Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own trading system and sell your trading strategy in our MarketPlace to earn real cash. Read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com; ranked top-20 software product out of 285 listed. Join today - it's free!

Read more!