Fallond Stock Picks

Stock Market Commentary: Hello Bears!

2009-07-02T22:31:00.002+01:00

A bad day for large caps saw the Dow slice through its 50-day and 200-day MA with the S&P losing the 50-day MA. Any improvement in the technicals for the S&P were quickly erased. Luckily, volume was not excessive so this may play as nothing more than a once off blip or it could suggest a level of complacency on the part of bulls who have managed to maintain this rally in the face of broad skepticism.

Ironically, the index which looked like it was going to take the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 down, the semiconductor index, had a quiet day. A narrow doji on the 50-day MA didn't change anything and the possibility of further gains are not off the table.

Small Caps also had it rough as the mid-June breakdown could only run alongside former support before it dropped through its 50-day MA:

The July holiday weekend means no trading for Friday so it will be a edgy weekend for bulls. One more day of downside over the next couple of days may end any hope bulls had of challenging May/June highs until probably the end of the year.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Black Gold Rally Done?

2009-07-02T10:32:00.003+01:00

A weakening dollar will keep commodity bugs aflutter but what can it mean for commodity prices; gold and oil in particular? The chart below shows my June 22nd annotations for the EURUSD which are still in play. If the dollar was to weaken another 10% what impact will this have?

Looking at the historical relationship between oil and gold prices any spike into the upper 20s (ie when gold trades at 25-30 times the price of oil) has been a good opportunity to buy oil. This has shown itself well on the recent spike.

Prior to 2000, spike lows in the ratio in the 6-10 range have not been a good time to own either gold or oil.

But the questions the aforementioned chart asks are

[1] Is now the time to sell the oil given the relationship has dropped to the 1997 spike low at 13.50 when oil prices peaked?
[2] Will a further deterioration in the dollar potentially see this ratio fall back to sub-10s (although a weak dollar will boost both oil and gold prices, but would oil benefit more)?
[3] What of the elephant in the room from 2001-2008 when the ratio effectively traded in a tight range of 6.00-15.00 as both oil and gold made tremendous gains - oil in particular?

Whatever the short term implications of a weakening dollar the long term picture for oil may not be so hot. Yes, we live in a very weak economic environment but with considerable inflation pressures down the road. However, it is rare for any asset to emerge from a strong trending period to kick straight into another. Oil is likely to spend the next decade trading in a range probably between $30 and $80 a barrel.

As a finite commodity it has a built-in appreciation level so it has excellent potential for future price growth. It is an ideal asset to have in a retirement account (either as a related stock or ETF) where timing short term appreciation is not the goal.

As a trading instrument any drop into the $30s is a buy irrepsective of economic conditions. Anything pushing $80+ is a good reason to take some profits with a psychological break and hold of $100 probably enough to see it challenge 2008 highs.

Gold is a trickier beast. Given the relationship to oil has never cleared more than 28 times its value one could assume gold has the potential to trade up to $2,240/oz if oil traded at $80. However, weak periods for oil over the past 20 years have not been strong periods for gold. Gold Bugs will probable argue differently but it seems unlikely for gold to get past $1,000 this time around.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Indecision

2009-07-01T21:33:00.002+01:00

The last few days have seen some tight trading with doji or small real bodied candlesticks dominating action across the indices.

One area which saw some bullish strength was the switch in relative strength from Large Caps to Small Caps; this left markets in their most bullish relative strength alignment (Small caps > Tech > Large Caps). This could be the basis for a budding rally but June highs need to be breached soon if momentum is to be maintained.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Jeff Goldblum on Colbert

2009-07-01T12:17:00.002+01:00

The Colbert Report

Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c

Jeff Goldblum Will Be Missed

www.colbertnation.com

Colbert Report Full Episodes

Political Humor

Jeff Goldblum

:)

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Transports Lagging

2009-07-01T11:24:00.003+01:00

Bulls will have been following the gains in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 with great pleasure, even the Dow managed a piece of the bullish action in recent days. However, Dow Theorists will be concerned by the lack of participation from the Transport Index. If ever there was a trading no-mans land the Transports are in it.

It would take a sustained gain for the Transports to generate a "Golden Cross" and it's hard to see this happening as broader indices struggle to challenge June highs. Bulls can take some comfort from a potential ascending triangle but should the index fall back from its 200-day MA and test its support there isn't much wiggle room should support break.

A 50% trim of the March-June rally could see this challenge 2,800s (or the early April reaction low).

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Tired Rally

2009-06-30T21:40:00.002+01:00

The early collapse in the market had worrying tones but there was no follow through even if volume registered as distribution. The Dow has the greatest interest simply because it's in a support battle at the 50-day and 200-day MAs.

The other index to watch is the semiconductor index; the second indecisive doji after the 'shooting star' with the 20-day MA overhead is suggesting further gains are looking more and more unlikely. It's still holding the 50-day MA but I am liking a test of the 200-day MA before a run on June highs is attempted.

In defense of the markets I thought it was going to be a whole lot worse.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Markent Sentiment: Bull Cross or Bull Trap?

2009-06-30T09:53:00.002+01:00

The recent rally has put a little bit of fire into breadth's belly. However, not all breadth indicators took the bait. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents is best placed with the bullish cross of the 5-day EMA as the Ultimate Oscillator worked a 'buy' signal from oversold conditions. Whether this evolves into a bull trap or a genuine 'buy' signal remains to be seen but it's a positive at least (and is still a good 5 points away from traditional bull market overbought levels).

I was surprised not to see a stronger technical response for the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA. Given we are near the highs of June the indicator shows 30% fewer stocks trading above this key moving average than back at the start of May when it peaked. This is a bad omen and a potential low risk short using June highs as a stop.

Buyer beware...(again)

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Dow Pops Over 200-day MA

2009-06-29T22:35:00.002+01:00

Old news for every other index which are well over their respective 200-day MAs but the Dow managed to fight back to close over its. It's very close to a "Golden Cross" of its own.

Other indices finished neutral with former support playing as resistance; the Russell 2000 been a prime example

It's hard to read too much into typical summer trading. May/June lows are the best line in the sand if you are a bull. No confirmed reason to sell but hard to be a buyer.

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers

2009-06-29T16:45:00.002+01:00

Will the markets break? Another week where early week weakness was reversed. What had the stockchart.com ers to say about it all?

Anthony Caldaro of the Elliott Wave lives on has labelled a '1' / '2' of a new 5-wave down. '2' for the S&P is just over 930. It's an alternate count to his original ABC correction (which is still labelled) but it's worth keeping track of.

Richard Lehman has gone with new short term upchannels - but sees the broader downtrend taking control over the next few days.

6/27 -- Laggards like financials (XLF) and China shares(FXI)have now finally broken into new upward blue mini channels, joining the others. The small caps have had the greater pop upward, but all the indexes are showing this pop to be narrow and somewhat steep, suggesting a brief life. I am still expecting that they will peak out with a few days at levels below the highs of June 11th, forming peaks that will determine the angle of the larger descending channels here.

6/25 -- The broader indexes all broke clearly upward through the purple downtrends today. With that, we are in new blue upward minis and I now see the bigger picture developing. In my view, the purple downchannels were really just minis, as I suggested early on. That means the purples formed the first leg down of a larger downchannel and the current upmove is leg #2 up. This new upleg is narrow and will not likely last more than another few days or so. I've drawn this larger downward scenario on the DJIA and Nasdaq hourly charts.

This scenario would work well with expected end of quarter window dressing and is supported by the substantial drop in VIX today. A continuation of the downtrend beginning near month end would be supported by the even larger premium now in VIX futures for July.

6/24 -- The bounces continued, at least up until the Fed announcement, at which time a 'sell on the news' party ensued. Some indexes reached the upper lines and some only got close, but the result was that everything held trend in the purple channels. VIX declined, even with the sell-off, so maybe that is a sign that a more lasting turn upward is close at hand.

Joe Reed has his weekly summary:

Didn't notice this comment of his tucked under Joe's own EWT count

6-18-09 Update: But don't get carried away with one chart. Here's a 2nd Elliot wave opinion.Another famous 'Elliot Waver', Neely, says the March-June rally is in the final leg of the correction and now ending. The Bear Market will resume sending the S&P DOWN FIFTY-PERCENT in the next 6 mos to well below 500, Yipes! We shall see, huh? In the meantime, just be careful out there.

Hurricane Season has begun.

Solid dollar chart here:

Significant bearish divergence in the Ultimate Oscillator of the SPY:

Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview shows neutral short term conditions with bearish intermediate conditions.

Rally on fumes? Note lack of either distribution or accumulation days.

I like the idea for a complex head-and-shoulder pattern - this would translate into a boring summer and potentially torrid September on:

Gaps to fill:

Finally, Ted Burge of Tedlines.com has a point-n-figure chart showing a bearish target of 7,700:

Grim viewing all round but contrarians will see this as good news (the same good news which has kept this rally going since it started in March and ran into its first resistance level in April).

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Latest Trading Jobs

2009-06-28T21:57:00.003+01:00

Another spread of jobs from entry level up:

Fixed Income Trader
Financial Engineer Trader
Entry Level Trader
International Institutional Sales Trader
Trader Desktop Support
Equity Trader
Commodity Trader
Institutional Equity Sales Trader: $100-150K

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Market Commentary: Contrary To Action In the Indices, Breadth Weakened Further

2009-06-27T22:55:00.003+01:00

On a week-to-week basis there wasn't much going down for the indices. The Nasdaq was able to make a positive backtest of 1,759 support, finishing the week a couple points shy of its high.

The Russell 2000 lost weekly support of 517 (just); although the doji may be seen as bullish it must be countered by the neutral long term and overbought short term momentum.

The Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA for both the Nasdaq and S&P collapsed; fewer stocks holding the rally mean it won't last forever. Without broader participation the rally has the same chance of success as the 2006 divergence brought about in 2007.

It should be added the technicals for the Percentage of S&P stocks above the 50-day MA switched negative to 'sell'.

The longer divergences play between parent indices and supporting breadth the likelihood the next move down will be swift and hard. Based on some of my earlier analysis a big move down sounds too expected by the market - and therefore unlikely. But I don't know how a continued rally can hold in the face of growing breadth weakness?

May lows in the daily will probably be a significant line in the sand for bulls locking in profits from positions taken earlier during the year.

Last chance to enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Thank You TraderInterviews.com!

2009-06-26T11:34:00.003+01:00

My latest Scratchback purchase is from TraderInterviews.com.

As part of the Scratchback purchase I allocate the $25 payment to a KIVA loan. Repayments from prior loans have also meant I have been able to make 10 new loans (including Tim's payment). This brings the total number of microloans to 117.

All of this was made possible by support from my former newsletter subscribers and Scratchback purchasees.

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Decent Recovery

2009-06-25T22:10:00.002+01:00

A number of positives has given bulls something to play with. For the Nasdaq, on-balance-volume and the +DX/-DI managed bullish crosses as the index regained the 20-day MA. Volume also climbed in line with accumulation.

The gains in the Dow were decent and were enough to push past the 50-day MA but not enough to break the 200-day MA.

The Russell 2000 had the benefit of a declining 200-day MA and a recently Golden Crossed 50-day MA to bounce off. There was even a bull cross in the CCI to give bulls an additional 'buy' signal.

The under pressure Semiconductor index also did enough to regain its 50-day MA with a CCI 'buy' signal of its own; better stuff from this key recovery sector.

Today marked a key play for bulls. With key moving averages regained it's now up to bulls to push their advantage. Shorts will wait for momentum to tire before getting aggressive again which is unlikely until June highs are approached.

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Bulls Struggle

2009-06-24T22:32:00.002+01:00

Inevitable after a couple days of losses was the rally. However, after a positive start, bulls started to fade into the close. Monday's heavy losses capped any push above those day's highs. Volume was light but will it be enough to facilitate a second attempt at a rally tomorrow?

The Dow was repelled at its 50-day MA.

It was the same story for other indices. At least for the Small Caps both 50-day and 200-day MAs held.

Buy expect tomorrow to see bears re-assert themselves.

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Bullish Gold - Bearish Dollar Index

2009-06-24T10:54:00.004+01:00

The past 18 months have seen building pressure on $1000 resistance in Gold with the dollar now struggling to regain anything like its early year momentum. The one glitch in the scenario was the break of rising support from November lows in Gold but this will probably amount to little more than a change in the rate of ascent. April lows of $869 should not be violated.

The dollar index 'looks' to want to retest 71.32 which will have a knock on effect for commodity prices, likely taking oil past the $70-74 band of resistance with the potential to push it into the low $100s (although it will take more than a weakening dollar to get it there).

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Technicals Break

2009-06-23T22:39:00.002+01:00

Yesterday saw the indices lose support, today saw supporting technicals turn net red. The only indices to hang on were the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, each retaining their 50-day MAs to boot.

But the Russell 2000 lost technical bullishness

Along with the Dow

But once again volume was light considering. Currently short term oversold so a couple of days of gains are likely on the cards.

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Long Term Optimism or Secular Bearism?

2009-06-23T10:48:00.004+01:00

As the markets play around in the summer sun with Tuesday likely to see some modest recovery to yesterday's losses I took the opportunity to look at a couple of 30-year charts for S&P and Nasdaq.

I wanted to eliminate noise so tracked only 20-week and 40-week EMAs, monitoring where crossovers occurred. In summary, the most recent 15 years have been relatively stable compared to the more whipsaw nature of the previous 15. Are we entering a new whipsaw period?

Of interest too was the deep oversold nature of the recent decline - a decline which took the 20-week EMA outside of the lower Bollinger Band. Past occurrences when the EMA exceeded the (upper) Bollinger band where the pre-1987 crash and the pre-2007 crash. In each case the market headed south in a hurry. At this point, a counter rally of similar strength is unlikely but there is little reason for shorts to be aggressive here - even if buying is not necessarily the preferred choice.

The Nasdaq didn't gain during its recent cyclical bull leg as the S&P did. However, its 20-week EMA dipped outside of the lower Bollinger Band on its March low as for the S&P. It's closer to a bullish crossover than the S&P but will it bring reward?

The eventual outcome will probably be quite scrappy and not very tradable but such is the nature of a recovery. Certainly the worst looks behind it but a period of modest losses to see out the secular bear likely has greater merit here; perhaps an inverse as to what happened during the eighties and early nineties???

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Bears Make A Run

2009-06-22T22:00:00.002+01:00

On first appearance it was a nasty knock to the indices but the volume was not excessive for the degree of point loss. The Nasdaq has three out of four supporting technicals on 'bear' signals but as long as the 50-day MA holds it's not over for the bulls.

But the worry for the Nasdaq (and Nasdaq 100) is the collapsed state of the Semiconductors; its 50-day MA was cleanly sliced and all supporting technicals are in the red. Bulls will really need to step up on Tuesday if a rout is not to emerge here. Two-hundred day MA is next support.

The Russell 2000 was a mixed bag with the clear break of rising support from late March reaction lows on the back of a bullish "Golden Cross" between the 50-day and 200-day MAs.

The S&P was another mixed bag with the 200-day and 50-day MAs creating a "Golden Cross" but the index cut through each MA! Relative strength also swung away from speculative small caps in favor of 'safe haven' large caps. Double trouble.

On the bright side, all indices are approaching May lows which may set up the boundaries for a summer trading channel. Again, volume was light so this was selling without conviction. Not an ideal trade scenario on either side.

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers

2009-06-22T10:07:00.002+01:00

Summer's here and a slow week saw modest losses, but nothing killer. Since the March bottom there hasn't been two weeks of consecutive selling - will this week offer the first one? What had the Stockcharts.com Publishers to say about it.

Eric Muathe of Muathe Twitter has a couple of charts of interest. His weekly chart uses 1,739 as the breakout point for the Nasdaq with 10-week and 13-week EMAs as trailing support - last weeks selling was nothing to be too alarmed about based on these metrics

His daily chart has the gap breakout holding with a larger overhead gap as an upside target.

Anthony V Caldaro of Objective Elliot Wave noted a "primary B" for his wavecount; but I don't 'see it' unless he refers to the "B" of the "ABC" from the March low (with the 'v' at 956.23?); if that's the case then the current move down would likely last a few weeks. EWT is such a head-spinner!

George Zimmerman of GSZimmTrading.com suggests a reaction low for the NYSE McClellan Oscillator; although if it plays out like it did for June of last year then the 'buy' signal has the potential to trap plenty of bulls.

When you look at it from a Summation perspective the 'sell' signal is more obvious:

Richard Lehman is looking for a downward Monday (futures would appear to suggest a gap down at least).

6/20 -- Today's failure suggests to me that we have hit the upper line of the ST downtrend and I have drawn it that way (purple) on most charts. We have now had teh red mini down and the blue back up. I expect Monday to begin the next red mini down. Its a bit early to make that call, but that's what I'm seeing. VIX shows a larger upchannel now and its position is at the bottom of that channel, so moving up from here would be consistent with another decline in equities. Furthermore, it cannot be comforting that Chinese and American ships are heading to intercept a North Korean vessel carrying nuclear weaponry.

6/19 -- Quadruple witching today. That means a lot of churning and unwinding to obscure the underlying direction. The little upmove (blue mini) may continue a bit, but I still see it as the precursor to another down leg. The Dow hourly looks like the index is coming up to retest the green breakout line -- maybe that's what's going on. The resources like gold or oil are a different play, and may bounce within larger downtrends.

6/17 -- The short term charts are all in downtrends at least at the mini level, though they are starting to take different shapes. The Dow looks best as a slope change at mini level, while the Naz and QQQQ may have actually started breaking back upward. The XLE and XLF have been hard hit, approaching their green support lines from March. The consensus, all told, is that while we may find some support and a bounce here, I see this as likely to continue slipping into July. The amount of open ground underneath the long term charts is pretty vast.

Dr. Joe has his synopsis on last week:

By his measures the "B" of the "ABC" EWT correction is not in place yet:

20-day MA still support for the Nasdaq:

Finally, Yong Pang of CobrasMarketView has a solid 'neutral' short term picture with a bearish bent over the intermediate term; he asks "H&S Bottom or Bear Flag for Monday?"

The bearish wedge in the SPY broke last week

So do odds favour the bears this week?

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Trading Jobs for June 21st

2009-06-21T09:58:00.002+01:00

Eight jobs for this week

Fixed Income Trader
Trader, Collateralized Mortgage Obligation (CMO)
Fixed Income Trader
Financial Engineer - Trader
International Institutional Sales Trader
Fixed Income Trader
Proprietary Trader
Senior Equity Sales Trader

For more jobs head to my jobs page.

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Market Commentary: Breadth Top

2009-06-21T08:18:00.003+01:00

Modest losses on the week for the indices weren't enough to prevent a bullish cross of long term momentum (stochastics [39,1]) for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.

On the other side of the fence, market breadth had taken a marked turn to the downside. MACD trigger 'sells' for the Percentage of Nasdaq and S&P stocks above the 50-day MA. The rally is currently been supported by fewer and fewer stocks above their 50-day MAs.

Summation Indices also marked the week with a new reaction low.

However, over the course of a bull market such divergences were not uncommon and the bulk of the last cyclical bull market operated under a negative divergence between breadth and the parent market. How these conditions play out in a cyclical bear market will be made clearer over the coming week but it's a clear warning sign the best of the rally is behind it for now.

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Status Quo

2009-06-18T22:21:00.002+01:00

A lazy summer day summed up the trading this Thursday. No support violations for the Nasdaq or Nasdaq 100 and no recovery from the indices which had lost support. The only index under a measure of threat is the Semiconductor index at its 50-day MA.

The bearish divergence in the S&P highlights the general struggle indices have at holding these levels.

Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398

[1] Register at Zignals.
[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)
[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)
[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals
[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.
[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

Good luck!

Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.