Trade Ideas: KMG, WDR, ECA, APLX, AES, SRE, ZL, GRB

Bulls put the hammer down with strength across the board. The Trade Ideas scan was not short of bullish candidates; today's selection covered 2 minutes of late afternoon trading. Every stock appeared once during this period, but ZL was the most frequent appearer based on the previous 10 minutes of the scan.

KMG: Three month cup-and-handle pattern. Stops can go on a loss of $98. Cautious buyers should wait for volume break of $107. Projected target of $127. Point-n-figure target of $110 should be exceeded. Weekly chart shows stong uptrend, although volume has dropped off significantly since early 2005.

WDR: Bounce off the 50-day MA is stuck in a limbo of retracement from $24.80 highs. Look for retracements back to the 50-day MA as buying opportunities and a place to set stops. Resistance at $26 and $31.

ECA: Small handle between $50 and $52. Stops can go on loss of $50. Triple bottom ($40.04/$39.47/$41.15) forms part of a wider consolidation base (7-months, see weekly chart) with resistance at $52. Looks good for move to $80. Point-n-figure target of $65 is more modest. Investor grade.

APLX: Thinly traded issue. Building pressure on $8 resistance as part of the big February gap down ($8.25 resistance). 40-week average has been strong support and a good place to buy. Weekly chart shows a bullish ascending triangle; projected target of $12.

AES: Working through a declining channel base on modest volume. This channel forms part of a much larger, 15-month base (see weekly chart). Should the latter break $18 resistance it should see a move to $23. Point-n-figure target of $21.50 looks a little conservative here.

SRE: Close above the 50-day MA after the second test of the 200-day MA drove a break of the faster MA. Gap resistance at $47.50 and 52-week high resistance at $49.22. Stops go on a loss of $45. Point-n-figure target of $55.50; ride the trend.

ZL: Lovely bullish engulfing pattern at 50-day MA support. Should see a challenge of $3.00 resistance. Stops go on a loss of the 50-day MA which has been picture perfect in its support. Resistance kicks in at $4 up to $5.50, then there is a some room to the next resistance point at $12.50.

GRB: Currently price at good accumulation levels in the $9.75-$10.75 range of a 2-month base. Likely test of 40-week MA will be the impetus to continue the rally started in the summer of 2005. Measured move target of $18.50. Stops on a loss of $9.70. Point-n-figure target holds to a more ambitious $24.50.



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Trade Ideas: KONG, K, BK, VSL, PONR, SONO, WITS, MTSN

Bulls took up the opportunity to buy into a short term, Tech oversold market. Whether it can sustain itself will become apparent next week. But it generated a nice swathe of stocks on the Trade Ideas scan. Today's eight stocks covered a time span of three minutes, each stock appeared only once over this time period.

KONG: Decent handle shaping off $14.25 resistance as part of a four month base. 20-day MA has acted as support during this handle and stops should be placed on a loss of this average. Short term traders can sell test of $15. Those with a longer time frame can look to a projected target of $19.50 or the point-n-figure target of $23.50. Featured to my newsletter subscribers for September 26th at $12.87.

K: Small rectangular consolidation at $45.85 support, one of the strongest performing consolidation patterns. Projected target of $50 but this is a conservative estimate if a triple top breakout on the point-n-figure chart is hit by a move to $47. Latter chart target is $73.

BK: Trading around support of the 50-day MA. Best to wait for break of $36 before joining the fray. Solid rising channel on the weekly chart. Point-n-figure price target of $58 (note the ever increasng volume pattern in the p-n-f chart; very bullish). Frist featured to my newsletter subscribers at $29.39 for September 23rd and again for November 1st.

VSL: Double bottom ($18.98/$18.72) confirmation on its way to closing the breakdown gap at $21. Should see test of $23.50 resistance. Weekly chart shows prices have hugged the 40-week average and this has provided an excellent buying opportunity. Point-n-figure target of $37.50 should follow from the (confirmed) weekly triangle target of $26.

PONR: Stuck in a broad trading range between $29 and $33. A push to $34 would trigger an ascending triple top breakout. Price target of $43.50. One to watch.

SONO: Another stock trading inside a consolidation pattern. Today may be viewed as a low volume channel breakout. 200-day MA/40-week MA has acted as support and is a place to position stops (alternatively on a loss of $37). Point-n-figure target of $64. Further watch-list material. Featured on my newsletter when it traded at $33.79 in July of last year.

WITS: Nice follow through on last weeks broad white candlestick. This looks to have formed a bear trap following the failed break of $22.25 support. Expect test of $25.50. Point-n-figure target of $29.50 looks reasonable, but it may not get there quickly. Featured as a newsletter pick from September 2004 (traded around $16) to April 18th of this year.

MTSN: Coming to the end of a four month consolidation. Stops can go on a loss of $11. Cautious buyers may wish to wait for break of $12.50. Resistance at $13.50 shouldn't be too much of a problem. Measured move target of $17.70. Point-n-figure target of $26. Weekly chart shows the four month consolidation as a solid handle in a 2 year base.


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Trade Ideas: ASML, MGAM, IBNK, KSS, ALTR, FSP, BPA, EXC

The current selection covered 4 minutes of the softwares' time. Frequency on the scan represented by "*"; the most frequently appearing stock was IBNK. Markets spent another day in a holding pattern with a bearish bias.

ASML: * : Small bullish hammer at the 20-day MA. Holding to the lows of the mid-April buying surge. Stops can go on a break of the 20-day MA or loss of $20.50 depending on your risk threshold. Resistance at $23.50. Projected target of $32.

MGAM: * : Finds support at $13. Late afternoon buying completes a modestly bullish 'thrusting pattern'. Stops on loss of $12.66. Point-n-figure target of $19.50. Resistance at $28.

IBNK: *** : Trading inside a horizontal range. Big ceiling at $23 - a break of this price should see this fly. Point-n-figure target of $38.50. Stops on loss of $19. One to accumulate.

KSS: * : Rally fast approaching $58 resistance (after that it is $65). Golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day MA sets up a bullish long term picture, but looks a little rich in the short term. Point-n-figure target of $86.

ALTR: * : Trading support of the 50-day MA, buy tests of this average. Another Golden Cross of the 50-day and 200-day MAs. Stops can go loss of 50-day MA. Point-n-figure target of $29.50 as part of a March 1st Double Top Breakout

FSP: ** : Decent handle taking shape between $19.50 and $21.50 following a "V"-bottom at $15.06. Point-n-figure target of $32.50 looks reasonable once there is a volume break of $21.50.

BPA: * : Scrappy action around the 20-day MA and 50-day MA. Best for watch lists until there is a heavy volume upside move. Buy break of $4.50. Resistance at $6. Point-n-figure target of $8.25.

EXC: * : Trading above 50-day MA as part of a 3-month consolidation. Cautious buyers should wait for break of $56. Point-n-figure chart favors the bears with a current target of $45, a move to $58 would negate this target.


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Prepare for a Dollar Bounce

Two charts which show the dollar is not in as bad a state as the consensus would have you believe. A low risk buying opportunity is about to emerge. The question will be how far can it go?


US Dollar

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The Next Commodity Wave

Sourced this from Trader Mike. Article by John Partrige of Globeinvestor.com. Opinion of Jim Rogers, of Rogers International Commodities Index.

"We're a lot closer to the bottom for agriculture than we are for copper," Mr. Rogers said a little breathlessly yesterday when reached mid-workout at a New York gym. "We have many, many, many percentage points to go on the upside."

Take sugar. Even though it jumped by 60 per cent last year, making it the top performer among commodities, and is continuing its rapid rise in 2006, it is still below its record high, he said. Cotton and corn are both 50 to 60 per cent below their highs, while coffee is 70 per cent below its.

John Partridge.

Some things to consider with Agricultural commodity prices;

* Seasonal price peaks occur in Spring and prices fall into Harvest.
* High energy prices add cost to storage (and harvesting) expenses.

Of the commodity charts listed below:

[1] Coffee looks best positioned for multi-year gains.
[2] Cocoa looks attractive as it trades near long term support.
[3] Sugar is in need of a sizable pullback but the small pennant in the chart should break upside to push prices into a $22-26 range.



Agriculture Coffee Cocoa Oats Wheat Corn Cotton Sugar

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Trade Ideas: BIO, TNC, ASHW, FVL, SMMX, BRY, CEO, ACO

The eight stocks for today were drawn from the last minute of trading. Other than TNC which appeared twice, every stock made a single appearance on the scan during this time.

BIO: Small hammer at the 20-day MA. Significant resistance at $68. Prior congestion around $63 should provide support. Point-n-figure target of $89 only for the patient. Short term traders more likely to benefit with a sale at $68.

TNC: Upside break of trading consolidation. Follow through price target of $63. Support at 50-day MA best place for support. Resistance at $55 a concern. Point-n-figure target of $74.

ASHW: Sideways consolidation followed with an upside breakout. Four day consolidation in the upper range of last weeks heavier volume buying provides a low risk opportunity with a stop on a loss of $10.10. Point-n-figure chart still shows the stock has plenty of work to do.

FVL: Tight action between $17.00-$17.25. 50-day MA below to provide support. Cautionary bearish divergence in money flow. Slow burner; unlikely to reap dividends for short term traders.

SMMX: Initial break of $29.50 was rejected but stock has held above $28.50 support. Slight increase in buying volume favors another bullish attack. Weekly chart holds to a bullish ascending triangle. Projected target of $42 which closely approximates the point-n-figure target of $43.

BRY: Mixed bag. The last 4-days of advance have the look of a bear flag which may mean a test of the 50-day MA. Weekly chart shows good prior support at the 40-week average (currently at $64.86). Point-n-figure target of $107 not outside the realms of possiblity given its steady advance from $40.37.

CEO: Bounce off the 50-day MA but remains vulnerable as the break of $88 resistance was rejected. The bullish cross of the 20-day/50-day MA looks to be fueling the current buying. Ride the 20-day MA up.

ACO: Plenty of heavy volume volatility. 50-day MA holds as support (stops can go just below). Point-n-figure target of $60.50 looks ambitious at this juncture. Look for a projected move to $41.


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Collective2: TRX out

Stop hit from my entry (marked by the green arrow) the day after the "hammer" which was above support. The last three run of dojis define supply at $17.75. While the 50-day MA at $16.97 looks to be the next test for the bulls. The 500 share lot closed for a -$335 loss.

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Trade Ideas: CF, GLQ, LWSN, Q, PGH, ESCL, LPX, TRMP

The eight stocks for today covered a span of 22 minutes of the screening software. With the exception of LPX each stock appeared only once over this period; LPX appeared twice. A late afternoon plunge has put the markets under pressure. It will be interesting to see how these stocks play out next week and into the forseeable future.

CF: Large bullish engulfing pattern off the 50-day MA. Resistance around $18.50. Projected target in the $22-23 range. Recent consolidation shaped a handle to the 2005 "V"-bottom

GLQ: Relatively illiquid. Key resistance at $24.75. Three day correction looks to have completed. Stops can go on a loss of $23.25. Initial target of $30.

LWSN: Decent demand in the $7.00-$7.50 range. Resistance at $8.00. Weekly action most favorable; rectangle congestion/handle off a $4.94/$4.88/$4.93 Adam-and-Eve double bottom. Projected target of $11.25. Point-n-figure chart holds to a target of $14.50.

Q: Has run into a layer of resistance at $7.00. 50-day MA has provided strong support on three seperate occasions (January, February and April) and is a good place to run a stop. Look for challenge of $10. Resistance likely at $11.

PGH: A crude cup-and-handle pattern developing off $25 resistance. Stops go on loss of $24. Projected target of $30 from the $21.50/$21.74 Adam-and-Eve (Adam-and-Adam?) double bottom. Point-n-figure target of $27.50

ESCL: Still running inside a three-month base. Watch for handle development from $34. With the 50-day MA at $26.29 this is in a quiet accumulation phase. Low volume has kept this off the momentum players radar who played this from $10 to $35 in 2005-early 2006.

LPX: Scrappy action. Resistance at $29.50, but this is effectively range bound between it and $25. Weekly chart looks little better.

TRMP: Finding support at the 20-day MA and is an aggressive buy. Daily chart shows what looks to be a reversal head-and-shoulder pattern ($17.18/$15.85/17.85) which should project a challenge of $22. Weekly chart shows a trading range between $15.75 and $21. Point-n-figure target of $31.50 looks reasonable.


Trade Ideas

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Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : April 21st

The Friday-on-Friday comparison was a bad one for the Market ETFs (-0.72%); not one was able to close the week higher after Thursday's big gains. The best stock performers were drawn from my newsletter (+1.38%), closely followed by the stocks from my Trade Ideas Scan (+0.80%). Jim Cramer's stocks were the worst performer (-2.71%).

The weeks' best stock was DXCM after the company announced a public offering at $24 a share. The stock closed up +12.7% and was one of my free newsletter Breakout picks.

The worst performer, CIEN, was one of Jim Cramer's picks. The stock closed down -7.5%.



Trade Ideas stock picks are the most consistent performers with the lowest volatility (+1.02% +/-0.43%) of the four comparisons here.

Based on a straight fight between the systems, my Newsletter picks have performed strongest; 44% of the time, or 12 times in the last 27 weeks, have seen these stocks perform the best.

If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin.

If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap.

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Fallondpicks.com: Weekend commentary

Back in the saddle after completing my second CMT exam. The markets teased the bulls with Thursday's bullish engulfing patterns on higher volume but in the end it was the bears who took the week with heavy volume selling Friday. The sweep of stop hits (17 in all - see below) was testament to the bears, particularly as many of these stop hits occurred on the 'bullish' Thursday. If ever there was a reason for staying on the sidelines this was it.

There wasn't much gloss to Friday's trading. The NASDAQ finished near Thursday's lows but was able to trade above the 50-day MA. Lighter volume may have been some consolation for the bulls but the previous bullish engulfing pattern should not have retraced as much as it did given the accompanying volume. The NASDAQ 100 fared little better as the earlier trendline breakdown was reaffirmed as its bullish engulfing pattern was rejected on significantly heavier volume. The technical picture in this index remains very weak as the rate of separation from the S&P increased. The 50-day MA is the bulls only weapon at this stage of the proceedings. The large cap indices [Dow and S&P] knocked around just above (Dow) or below (S&P) nearby support/resistance. Their position of leadership relative to the Tech indices and (now) the Russell 2000 was won more by default rather than any particular bullish strength in these indices. Both of the large cap indices [Dow and S&P] remain contained by lengthy bearish divergences in the MACD trigger lines, much like the Tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] and to a lesser degree, small caps [Russell 2000].

Secondary tech indices [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] remained bear side as the $BPCOMPQ joined the other two indicators with a drop below its 5-day EMA. Volatility continued to find support at 15, lurking in wait for a fearful move upwards. A tough market for the bulls - but neither a good one for shorts - tick tick tick...

Newsletter updates:

Plenty of spring cleaning to do from the last couple of days. CPST hit its raised stop after its initial feature on April 11th. The April 11th play closed for a 7% loss. DFG hit its raised stop from April 19th even though it held support of a February-April horizontal price channel; if still holding use an alternative stop at $50.38. The February Subscriber feature closed for a 3% gain and the April Breakout play for a 4% loss. HOFT undercut $18.33 support to hit its April 3rd stop for a 7% loss (although the stock did bounce neatly off the 50-day MA - it still has long side merits at this juncture, stops on a loss of the 50-day MA). ILSE suffered a volatile Thursday to reverse earlier positive gains. The March 23rd and April 26th Breakout plays closed for a 3% gain and a 5% loss respectively. JKHY was a Subscriber pick from February and a Breakout play from April 4th; the February play closed for a 1% gain and the April feature for a 5% loss. LNY dipped out of its sideways consolidation to hit its April 21st stop price. The stock also featured to Subscribers on December 23rd and as an earlier Breakout on February 23rd. The December feature closed for a 32% gain, the February feature for an 8% gain and the April feature for a 3% loss. VICR reversed sharply on Friday to hit its April 26th stop price. The latter play closed for a 5% loss while the April 4th Breakout play closed flat. BG was a Subscriber pick from April 24th. The position was whipped out after a large gap down for a 6% loss. CPE hit its stop following 4 days of losses. The March 17th Subscriber play closed for a 4% gain while the April 21st play closed for a 5% loss. CLS had the misfortune of hitting its stop on the day of the big white (bullish) candlestick. The April 4th Subscriber play closed for a 8% loss. DTLK was able to finish Friday with a bullish hammer at support but not before it clipped its stop intraday for a 11% loss. GTXI has spent the last few weeks rolling over (on increasing volume). The January 20th Subscriber play closed for a 7% gain. LPSN was a March 27th Subscriber pick was stopped out on Thursday. The play closed for a 2% gain. NETL dropped below near term support (but not below the 50-day MA) to hit its April 17th stop for a 6% loss. The March 29th Subscriber play closed flat. NBL was a Subscriber feature from April 11th and closed for a 2% loss. NVD was a Subscriber play from April 25th, it closed for a 5% loss. TRGL cut back towards 50-day MA and wedge support but not before the March 29th Subscriber play hit its stop for a 3% loss.

fallond

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