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    Tuesday, June 30, 2009

    Stock Market Commentary: Tired Rally

    The early collapse in the market had worrying tones but there was no follow through even if volume registered as distribution. The Dow has the greatest interest simply because it's in a support battle at the 50-day and 200-day MAs.


    The other index to watch is the semiconductor index; the second indecisive doji after the 'shooting star' with the 20-day MA overhead is suggesting further gains are looking more and more unlikely. It's still holding the 50-day MA but I am liking a test of the 200-day MA before a run on June highs is attempted.


    In defense of the markets I thought it was going to be a whole lot worse.

    Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

    posted by Declan Fallon @ 9:40 PM   2 comments

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    2 Comments:

    At 11:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

    What about the fact that it appears we are finishing the right shoulder of a reverse head and shoulders pattern? I still like the DOW to fall to at least 7500 but I would much more satisfied with it falling to 6500.

    Do you ever do anything with Elliot Wave? They seem to be the biggest bears out there at this time as they are calling for a 3 wave down well past 6500.

     
    At 9:18 AM, Blogger Declan Fallon said...

    I don't do alot of EWT but from what I intrepret 'they' are looking at a 'C' correction; which could be a flat (i.e. a retest of lows) or a zig-zag and therefore new lows for the cyclical bear market.

    DJF

     

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