Fallond Stock Picks: Semiconductors try again to break

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Thursday, December 04, 2008

Semiconductors try again to break

Ahhh....those dreamy January days when I thought the worst was behind the semis. Things were looking rosy in March and it did manage a test of its 200-day MA, pushing to a high of $33.69, but after that it was all down hill. Almost a year has passed since the semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) knocked around $29-30 range, now they trade in the $15-16s.

Since August the declines have been withering; 2002 lows of $15.97 were breached and the sector is down 84% from its 2000 highs - a Depression if ever I saw one. I mention it now because it is one of the first sectors to gain strength after a recession. Not that it is doing much 'leading' or showing great 'strength' but it has managed to break the August-November decline.

This break needs to challenge the 50-day MA quickly so bulls can absorb the inevitable selling likely at this important moving average. The index was unable to absorb the double whammy of 50-day and 200-day MA convergence in August but now it has room to make a break of one before challenging the other.

If there is a sector due to catch a break it's the semiconductors. The question is, can it build on this kernel of hope?

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Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website