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    Wednesday, May 07, 2008

    Bullish Percents getting a little toasty

    Although not of immediate concern, some of the bullish percents are about to enter bear market (but not bull market) top territory. If January lows represent the start of a bear market then these breadth indicators should top soon. If the current rally is a continuation of the cyclical bull market then there is room for another 15-20% of gain (perhaps as much as 50% for the Nasdaq Bullish Percents).

    How this impacts on the market remains to be seen, but the likely outcome would be a negative divergence between breadth indicators and the market; indices make new highs as bullish percents fall. Time will tell.




    I'm traveling to D.C. so there will be no update tomorrow. INS appointment Friday.

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    2 Comments:

    At 2:54 PM, OpenID geckojb said...

    Not sure I understand what you're saying here? Are you pointing to a sccenario where breadth is very narrow and a few stocks power up the indexes due to market weightings but the average stock is in decline?

    I also thought that the Bullish Index goes negative on a cross below 70? These indexes appear far away from that but you are saying they are hot?

     
    At 4:04 AM, Blogger Declan Fallon said...

    In a bear market the breadth indicators will bottom and top at levels lower than those of a bull market. The January lows occurred at levels previously associated with bear markets - so the assumption is they will top at bear levels too. The negative divergence plays when the breadth indicators fall and the indices rise; which as you say, marks a situation when fewer stocks are supporting the rally.

     

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