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    Sunday, April 30, 2006

    Fallondpicks.com: Weekend commentary

    Back in the saddle after completing my second CMT exam. The markets teased the bulls with Thursday's bullish engulfing patterns on higher volume but in the end it was the bears who took the week with heavy volume selling Friday. The sweep of stop hits (17 in all - see below) was testament to the bears, particularly as many of these stop hits occurred on the 'bullish' Thursday. If ever there was a reason for staying on the sidelines this was it.

    There wasn't much gloss to Friday's trading. The NASDAQ finished near Thursday's lows but was able to trade above the 50-day MA. Lighter volume may have been some consolation for the bulls but the previous bullish engulfing pattern should not have retraced as much as it did given the accompanying volume. The NASDAQ 100 fared little better as the earlier trendline breakdown was reaffirmed as its bullish engulfing pattern was rejected on significantly heavier volume. The technical picture in this index remains very weak as the rate of separation from the S&P increased. The 50-day MA is the bulls only weapon at this stage of the proceedings. The large cap indices [Dow and S&P] knocked around just above (Dow) or below (S&P) nearby support/resistance. Their position of leadership relative to the Tech indices and (now) the Russell 2000 was won more by default rather than any particular bullish strength in these indices. Both of the large cap indices [Dow and S&P] remain contained by lengthy bearish divergences in the MACD trigger lines, much like the Tech indices [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] and to a lesser degree, small caps [Russell 2000].

    Secondary tech indices [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] remained bear side as the $BPCOMPQ joined the other two indicators with a drop below its 5-day EMA. Volatility continued to find support at 15, lurking in wait for a fearful move upwards. A tough market for the bulls - but neither a good one for shorts - tick tick tick...

    Newsletter updates:

    Plenty of spring cleaning to do from the last couple of days. CPST hit its raised stop after its initial feature on April 11th. The April 11th play closed for a 7% loss. DFG hit its raised stop from April 19th even though it held support of a February-April horizontal price channel; if still holding use an alternative stop at $50.38. The February Subscriber feature closed for a 3% gain and the April Breakout play for a 4% loss. HOFT undercut $18.33 support to hit its April 3rd stop for a 7% loss (although the stock did bounce neatly off the 50-day MA - it still has long side merits at this juncture, stops on a loss of the 50-day MA). ILSE suffered a volatile Thursday to reverse earlier positive gains. The March 23rd and April 26th Breakout plays closed for a 3% gain and a 5% loss respectively. JKHY was a Subscriber pick from February and a Breakout play from April 4th; the February play closed for a 1% gain and the April feature for a 5% loss. LNY dipped out of its sideways consolidation to hit its April 21st stop price. The stock also featured to Subscribers on December 23rd and as an earlier Breakout on February 23rd. The December feature closed for a 32% gain, the February feature for an 8% gain and the April feature for a 3% loss. VICR reversed sharply on Friday to hit its April 26th stop price. The latter play closed for a 5% loss while the April 4th Breakout play closed flat. BG was a Subscriber pick from April 24th. The position was whipped out after a large gap down for a 6% loss. CPE hit its stop following 4 days of losses. The March 17th Subscriber play closed for a 4% gain while the April 21st play closed for a 5% loss. CLS had the misfortune of hitting its stop on the day of the big white (bullish) candlestick. The April 4th Subscriber play closed for a 8% loss. DTLK was able to finish Friday with a bullish hammer at support but not before it clipped its stop intraday for a 11% loss. GTXI has spent the last few weeks rolling over (on increasing volume). The January 20th Subscriber play closed for a 7% gain. LPSN was a March 27th Subscriber pick was stopped out on Thursday. The play closed for a 2% gain. NETL dropped below near term support (but not below the 50-day MA) to hit its April 17th stop for a 6% loss. The March 29th Subscriber play closed flat. NBL was a Subscriber feature from April 11th and closed for a 2% loss. NVD was a Subscriber play from April 25th, it closed for a 5% loss. TRGL cut back towards 50-day MA and wedge support but not before the March 29th Subscriber play hit its stop for a 3% loss.

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